Bitcoin Halving — Two Years Later, How the Cycle Played Out

The 2024 halving was supposed to fire a textbook cycle peak in late 2025. The reality has looked considerably weirder.

Price-wise: BTC peaked at $110,200 in January 2025, ten months after the halving — the earliest cycle peak ever. The subsequent correction took the asset down to $58,400 by August before grinding sideways for most of the late 2025 period. Q1 2026 produced the second peak above $107K and the current $77K consolidation.

On-chain data tells a more nuanced story. Long-term holder supply hit a new all-time high during the August dip, indicating the largest cohort of investors did not sell into weakness. Exchange balances continued the multi-year decline. Both are textbook accumulation-phase signals.

The textbook cycle did not hold partly because spot ETF inflows fundamentally changed the demand structure. Institutional bid is less reflexive than retail, smoother in both directions, and harder to forecast. The next cycle will not look like the last three.