Coinbase Q1 Earnings Preview — The Numbers That Will Move COIN

Coinbase reports Q1 earnings next week. Three line items will move the stock more than the headline EPS number.

Subscription revenue is the most important. The Q4 figure of $510M was a 35% YoY jump, mostly driven by Coinbase One, USDC interest sharing, and the staking business. Anything materially below $510M will be read as Coinbase One growth slowing — and the stock is sensitive to that narrative.

Derivatives are the second number. International perps contributed about $90M last quarter, and the launch of US-regulated futures in March is expected to add meaningfully without cannibalizing spot. Watch the spot-vs-derivatives mix more than absolute numbers.

The third line is custody and prime. Institutional custody is on a quiet tear post-ETF, and prime brokerage AUM has grown 60% YoY. Coinbase will not break those out cleanly, but management commentary on the call will tell you whether institutional growth is broad-based or concentrated in a few mega-clients.